AEK Athens FC vs Asteras Tripolis: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 22Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)OPAP Arena, Athens
The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Asteras Tripolis. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Athens FC vs Asteras Tripolis?
AEK Athens FC is a heavy favourite: 2,120 Elo points against 1,768, a 353-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Athens FC have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeats; Asteras Tripolis have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 4-0 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-2 | Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kallithea(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 1-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levadiakos(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 21, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 2-1 | Super League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 AEK Athens FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Asteras Tripolis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis 0-1 AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | AEK Athens FC 1-0 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Asteras Tripolis 0-3 AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | AEK Athens FC 3-0 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| Feb 4, 2024 | AEK Athens FC 4-2 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Asteras Tripolis 0-3 AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Athens FC score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Asteras Tripolis score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Athens FC sit 1st in Super League 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Asteras Tripolis sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Athens FC vs Asteras Tripolis?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Asteras Tripolis.
- Where and when is AEK Athens FC vs Asteras Tripolis played?
- AEK Athens FC vs Asteras Tripolis is played on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at OPAP Arena, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.