Al Shabab vs Al Qadsia: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Al Ahmadi Stadium, Al Ahmadi
The Footlab model makes Al Qadsia the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Al Shabab. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Shabab vs Al Qadsia?
Al Qadsia is a heavy favourite: 1,727 Elo points against 1,358 — a 369-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Shabab have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Al Qadsia have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Al Tadhamon(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Al Jahra(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Al Nasar(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Al Jahra(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 29, 2026 | Al Tadhamon(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Al Kuwait(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Al Fahaheel(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Kazma(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Al Arabi(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Al Salmiyah(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Al Shabab win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Al Qadsia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | Al Qadsia 4-1 Al Shabab | Premier League |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Al Shabab 0-2 Al Qadsia | Crown Prince Cup |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Al Shabab 1-1 Al Qadsia | Premier League |
| Mar 7, 2024 | Al Qadsia 7-0 Al Shabab | Premier League |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Al Shabab 0-4 Al Qadsia | Premier League |
| Feb 11, 2022 | Al Qadsia 1-1 Al Shabab | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Al Qadsia vs Al Shabab on Jan 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al Shabab score 0.9 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Al Qadsia score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Al Qadsia | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Shabab sit 8th in Premier League (18 points from 18 matches) and Al Qadsia sit 3rd (35 points from 20 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al Qadsia | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 18 | 35 |
| 8 | Al Shabab | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Shabab vs Al Qadsia?
- The Footlab model makes Al Qadsia the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Al Shabab.
- Where and when is Al Shabab vs Al Qadsia played?
- Al Shabab vs Al Qadsia is played on October 23, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Al Ahmadi Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.