Amurrio Club vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Basarte, Amurrio
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Amurrio Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Amurrio Club vs Leioa?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Amurrio Club have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Leioa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2022 | Barakaldo(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 13, 2022 | Uritarra(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 9, 2022 | San Ignacio(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Tolosa(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Amurrio Club win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Leioa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | Amurrio Club 0-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Leioa 3-0 Amurrio Club | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Leioa 1-1 Amurrio Club | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Amurrio Club vs Leioa on Mar 26, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Amurrio Club score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amurrio Club | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Amurrio Club vs Leioa?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Amurrio Club.
- Where and when is Amurrio Club vs Leioa played?
- Amurrio Club vs Leioa is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Basarte, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.