Andorra vs Gibraltar: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella
The Footlab model makes Andorra the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Gibraltar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Andorra vs Gibraltar?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Andorra (1,247) and Gibraltar (1,155).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Andorra have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Gibraltar have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kosovo(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Liechtenstein(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | Iraq(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | San Marino(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Montenegro(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Cayman Islands(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | British Virgin Islands(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Latvia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Latvia(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Czechia(away) | 0-6 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Andorra win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Gibraltar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2024 | Gibraltar 1-0 Andorra | Friendlies |
| Nov 19, 2022 | Gibraltar 1-0 Andorra | Friendlies |
| Jun 7, 2021 | Andorra 0-0 Gibraltar | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Andorra score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gibraltar score 0.8 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Gibraltar | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Andorra vs Gibraltar?
- The Footlab model makes Andorra the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Gibraltar.
- Where and when is Andorra vs Gibraltar played?
- Andorra vs Gibraltar is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Estadi Nacional, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.