Argentina vs Costa Rica: prediction and stats
FriendliesFriendly InternationalKick-off on November 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Buenos Aires
The Footlab AI model makes Argentina the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Costa Rica. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,697 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Argentina vs Costa Rica?
Argentina starts as the favourite with a 251-point Elo edge (1,906 vs 1,655).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Argentina vs Costa Rica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Argentina
4-4-2- 9J. Álvarez
- 22Lautaro Martínez
- 20A. Mac Allister
- 8E. Fernández
- 18N. Paz
- 7R. De Paul
- 13C. Romero
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 3N. Tagliafico
- 19N. Otamendi
- 23E. Martínez
Costa Rica
4-4-2- 19O. Sinclair
- 12A. Soto
- 17C. Mora
- 8S. Acuña
- 20K. Michel
- 8D. Araya
- 15F. Calvo
- 2Yerlan Sosa
- 3J. Mitchell
- 4J. Vargas
- 1K. Navas
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 04:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Argentina have 14 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat; Costa Rica have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Benin(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Burkina Faso(home) | 7-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bolivia(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jul 15, 2026 | England(away) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Haiti(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Nicaragua(away) | 3-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Haiti(away) | 0-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Curaçao(home) | 3-4 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 10, 2026 | England(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Argentina win, 0 draws, 0 Costa Rica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | Argentina 3-1 Costa Rica | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Argentina vs Costa Rica on Mar 27, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Argentina score 3.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Costa Rica score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 3.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| Costa Rica | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Argentina vs Costa Rica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Argentina vs Costa Rica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Argentina the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Costa Rica.
- Where and when is Argentina vs Costa Rica played?
- Argentina vs Costa Rica is played on November 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the Friendlies.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.