Aruba vs Martinique: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeaguePlay-In FinalKick-off on November 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Centroamericano de Mayagüez, Mayagüez
The Footlab AI model makes Martinique the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Aruba. The most likely score is 1-1. If Martinique wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,545 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aruba vs Martinique?
On Elo ratings, Aruba has 1,395 points and Martinique 1,476.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aruba vs Martinique
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aruba
4-2-3-1- 9Carlito Fermina
- 7G. Robertha
- 16A. Mercera
- 8Walter Bennett
- 8W. Bennett
- 10J. Romano
- 4B. Martis
- 13Tyrese Gijsbertha
- 3Diederick Luigi Luydens
- 6R. Ostiana
- 1M. Lentink
Martinique
4-2-3-1- 10B. Labeau
- 8K. Appin
- 18J. Varane
- 14C. Mandouki
- 3J. Mexique
- 19Daniel Julien Hérelle
- 2J. Moutachy
- 5B. Moltenis
- 4H. Voyer
- 22F. Poulolo
- 1X. Lenogue
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 06:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aruba have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Martinique have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Antigua and Barbuda(away) | 2-3 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Anguilla(home) | 3-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Anguilla(away) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Antigua and Barbuda(home) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Curaçao(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | El Salvador(home) | 1-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Honduras(home) | 2-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Suriname(away) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | El Salvador(away) | 1-3 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Mar 29, 2026 | El Salvador(home) | 0-1 | CONCACAF Series |
How many goals should we expect?
Aruba score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Martinique score 0.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aruba | 1.7 | 1.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Martinique | 0.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Aruba vs Martinique?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aruba vs Martinique?
- The Footlab AI model makes Martinique the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Aruba.
- Where and when is Aruba vs Martinique played?
- Aruba vs Martinique is played on November 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Centroamericano de Mayagüez, in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.