Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Tripoli
The Footlab model makes Kalamata the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Asteras Tripolis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata?
Kalamata starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,908 vs 1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Asteras Tripolis have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Kalamata have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 1-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levadiakos(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 21, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 2-1 | Super League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 2-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Volos NFC(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-0 | Super League 2 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Marko(away) | 0-0 | Super League 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Asteras Tripolis score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kalamata score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Kalamata | 1.7 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Asteras Tripolis sit 11th in Super League 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Kalamata sit 9th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata?
- The Footlab model makes Kalamata the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Asteras Tripolis.
- Where and when is Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata played?
- Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.