Atlético Ottawa vs York United: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, Ontario
The Footlab model makes Atlético Ottawa the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for York United. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Atlético Ottawa starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,760 vs 1,642).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Ottawa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; York United have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 1-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Vancouver FC(home) | 4-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(away) | 2-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 3-3 | Canadian Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(home) | 2-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(home) | 4-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pacific FC(away) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 0-5 | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Forge(home) | 1-3 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atlético Ottawa win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 York United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2025 | York United 2-2 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Atlético Ottawa 0-0 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 8, 2025 | York United 3-4 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Championship |
| Jun 22, 2025 | York United 0-0 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Ottawa vs York United on Jul 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Ottawa score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; York United score 1.2 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Ottawa | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| York United | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlético Ottawa sit 3rd in Canadian Premier League (30 points from 19 matches) and York United sit 7th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 33 | 30 |
| 7 | York United | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Ottawa the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for York United.
- Where and when is Atlético Ottawa vs York United played?
- Atlético Ottawa vs York United is played on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at TD Place Stadium, in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC