Aurora vs Nacional Potosí: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónApertura - 21Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Félix Capriles, Cochabamba
The Footlab AI model makes Aurora the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Nacional Potosí. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aurora wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurora vs Nacional Potosí?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Aurora (1,593) and Nacional Potosí (1,638).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aurora vs Nacional Potosí
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aurora
4-2-3-1- 7H. Vaca
- 9M. Rangel
- 23I. Huayhuata
- 69A. Terrazas
- 19J. Sánchez
- 8L. Viviani
- 3L. Barboza
- 16D. Barro
- 70J. Torrico
- 32S. Altamirano
- 1J. Terrazas
Nacional Potosí
4-4-2- 11M. Tomianovic
- 19W. Álvarez
- 22D. Hoyos
- 18P. Azogue
- 10M. Núñez
- 15Jhojan Fenando Arce Pari
- 16A. Torrico
- 33L. Demiquel
- 34K. Medina
- 5S. Alvarez
- 23Pedro Galindo
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:19 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurora have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Nacional Potosí have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | ABB(home) | 2-0 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Real Potosí(away) | 1-1 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 30, 2026 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo(home) | 2-2 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 25, 2026 | ABB(away) | 1-0 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Universitario de Vinto(home) | 4-2 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Always Ready(away) | 3-2 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Real Oruro(home) | 2-0 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Real Tomayapo(away) | 1-1 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Always Ready(home) | 9-0 | Copa de la División Profesional |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Real Potosí(home) | 0-1 | Copa de la División Profesional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aurora wins, 1 draw, 3 Nacional Potosí wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nacional Potosí 2-0 Aurora | Primera División |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Aurora 1-2 Nacional Potosí | Primera División |
| May 16, 2025 | Nacional Potosí 3-1 Aurora | Primera División |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Aurora 1-1 Nacional Potosí | Primera División |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Nacional Potosí 1-3 Aurora | Primera División |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Aurora 4-1 Nacional Potosí | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Nacional Potosí vs Aurora on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aurora score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional Potosí score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 1.5 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Nacional Potosí | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurora sit 6th in Primera División (30 points from 20 matches) and Nacional Potosí sit 9th (27 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aurora | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 30 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosí | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 28 | 27 |
A question about Aurora vs Nacional Potosí?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurora vs Nacional Potosí?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aurora the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Nacional Potosí.
- Where and when is Aurora vs Nacional Potosí played?
- Aurora vs Nacional Potosí is played on October 11, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Félix Capriles, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.