Barquereño vs Castro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Castañar, San Vicente de la Barquera
The Footlab model makes Barquereño the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barquereño vs Castro?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Barquereño (1,636) and Castro (1,702).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barquereño have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Castro have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Colindres(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cartes(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Barquereño win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Castro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Castro 2-1 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Barquereño 0-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Castro 2-0 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Barquereño 0-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 22, 2021 | Castro 2-1 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2021 | Barquereño 2-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Barquereño score 1.2 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Castro score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barquereño | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Castro | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barquereño sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (30 points from 34 matches) and Castro sit 11th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Castro | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 44 | 47 | 38 |
| 14 | Barquereño | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 37 | 64 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barquereño vs Castro?
- The Footlab model makes Barquereño the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Castro.
- Where and when is Barquereño vs Castro played?
- Barquereño vs Castro is played on March 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Castañar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.