Belarus W vs Italy W: prediction and stats
World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeSemi-finalsKick-off on October 7, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lagator, Loznica
The Footlab model makes Italy W the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Belarus W. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belarus W vs Italy W?
Italy W starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (1,693 vs 1,508).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belarus W have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Italy W have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia W(home) | 6-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Kazakhstan W(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Armenia W(away) | 3-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Kazakhstan W(away) | 1-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Greece W(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Women |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Sweden W(away) | 2-2 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Serbia W(home) | 3-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Denmark W(away) | 0-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Serbia W(away) | 6-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Denmark W(home) | 1-1 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Belarus W score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Italy W score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus W | 1.3 | 0.7 | 10 | 1/15 | 6/15 |
| Italy W | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belarus W sit 1st in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe (9 points from 4 matches) and Italy W sit 2nd (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belarus W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Italy W | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belarus W vs Italy W?
- The Footlab model makes Italy W the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Belarus W.
- Where and when is Belarus W vs Italy W played?
- Belarus W vs Italy W is played on October 7, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lagator, in the World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Nov 29, 2025Tahiti W0-1Cook Islands W
- Apr 11, 2026Papua New Guinea W1-0American Samoa W
- Apr 11, 2026New Zealand W5-0Fiji W
- Oct 7, 2026Czechia WvsScotland W
- Oct 7, 2026Romania WvsNorway W
- Oct 7, 2026Kazakhstan WvsRepublic of Ireland W
- Oct 7, 2026Hungary WvsNetherlands W