Belenense vs CA Vila Rica: prediction and stats
Paraense A3Regular Season - 2Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Belenense the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for CA Vila Rica. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belenense vs CA Vila Rica?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Belenense (1,646) and CA Vila Rica (1,553).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Belenense have 6 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; CA Vila Rica have 0, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2025 | Santos PA(home) | 2-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Santos PA(away) | 2-4 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Vénus(home) | 3-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Vénus(away) | 0-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Pedreira(away) | 3-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Vénus(away) | 0-3 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Santos PA(home) | 1-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Vénus(home) | 0-3 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Santos PA(away) | 0-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | ESMAC(away) | 1-1 | Paraense B1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Belenense score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 11; CA Vila Rica score 0.4 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenense | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/11 | 5/11 |
| CA Vila Rica | 0.4 | 2.3 | 0 | 3/8 | 4/8 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belenense sit 1st in Paraense A3 (9 points from 4 matches) and CA Vila Rica sit 3rd (1 points from 4 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belenense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | CA Vila Rica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belenense vs CA Vila Rica?
- The Footlab model makes Belenense the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for CA Vila Rica.
- Where and when is Belenense vs CA Vila Rica played?
- Belenense vs CA Vila Rica is played on September 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Paraense A3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.