Belgium W vs Poland W: prediction and stats
World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeSemi-finalsKick-off on October 7, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Edmond Machtensstadion, Brussels (Bruxelles)
The Footlab model makes Belgium W the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Poland W. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belgium W vs Poland W?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Belgium W (1,643) and Poland W (1,589).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belgium W have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Poland W have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Luxembourg W(away) | 7-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Luxembourg W(home) | 6-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Scotland W(home) | 0-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Scotland W(away) | 1-1 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Israel W(home) | 5-0 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Netherlands W(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 5, 2026 | France W(home) | 0-2 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Republic of Ireland W(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Republic of Ireland W(home) | 2-3 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 7, 2026 | France W(away) | 1-4 | World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Belgium W score 2.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Poland W score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium W | 2.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Poland W | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belgium W sit 2nd in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe (14 points from 6 matches) and Poland W sit 4th (1 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Belgium W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Poland W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belgium W vs Poland W?
- The Footlab model makes Belgium W the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Poland W.
- Where and when is Belgium W vs Poland W played?
- Belgium W vs Poland W is played on October 7, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Edmond Machtensstadion, in the World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.