Binéfar vs Caspe: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Group 17 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Los Olmos, Binéfar
The Footlab model makes Binéfar the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Caspe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Binéfar vs Caspe?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Binéfar (1,783) and Caspe (1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Binéfar have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Caspe have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Andorra CF(away) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 3, 2026 | Utrillas(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | CDJ Tamarite(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atlético Monzón(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Almudévar(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Cuarte(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 17, 2026 | Cuarte(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 10, 2026 | Utrillas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 3, 2026 | CDJ Tamarite(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Atlético Monzón(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Binéfar win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Caspe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Caspe 1-1 Binéfar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Binéfar 0-1 Caspe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Caspe 0-0 Binéfar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Binéfar 3-2 Caspe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Caspe 2-1 Binéfar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Binéfar 0-0 Caspe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
How many goals should we expect?
Binéfar score 2.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Caspe score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binéfar | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Caspe | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Binéfar sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 (48 points from 34 matches) and Caspe sit 5th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Caspe | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 38 | 26 | 53 |
| 7 | Binéfar | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 58 | 47 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Binéfar vs Caspe?
- The Footlab model makes Binéfar the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Caspe.
- Where and when is Binéfar vs Caspe played?
- Binéfar vs Caspe is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Los Olmos, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.