Boreham Wood vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Meadow Park, Borehamwood, Hertfordshire
The Footlab model makes Boreham Wood the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Carlisle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boreham Wood vs Carlisle?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Boreham Wood (1,983) and Carlisle (1,902).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boreham Wood have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Carlisle have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leeds United U21(home) | 5-2 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tamworth(home) | 3-3 | National League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Norwich City U21(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Boreham Wood win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Carlisle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Carlisle 1-2 Boreham Wood | National League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Boreham Wood 2-0 Carlisle | National League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Carlisle 3-3 Boreham Wood | National League |
| Nov 19, 2013 | Carlisle 2-1 Boreham Wood | FA Cup |
| Nov 9, 2013 | Boreham Wood 0-0 Carlisle | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Carlisle vs Boreham Wood on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Boreham Wood score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Boreham Wood sit 4th in National League (7 points from 3 matches) and Carlisle sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Boreham Wood | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boreham Wood vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab model makes Boreham Wood the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Carlisle.
- Where and when is Boreham Wood vs Carlisle played?
- Boreham Wood vs Carlisle is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Meadow Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.