Bragança vs Maria da Fonte: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 19Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Bragança, Bragança
The Footlab model makes Bragança the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bragança vs Maria da Fonte?
Bragança starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,879 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bragança have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Maria da Fonte have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | SC Braga B(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brito(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| May 31, 2026 | Leça(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 23, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Brito(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arouca(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bragança win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Maria da Fonte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2023 | Bragança 1-3 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Maria da Fonte 0-0 Bragança | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Bragança 3-2 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jan 3, 2021 | Maria da Fonte 3-2 Bragança | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Feb 23, 2020 | Maria da Fonte 1-0 Bragança | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 5, 2019 | Bragança 0-0 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Bragança vs Maria da Fonte on Jan 22, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Bragança score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bragança | 1.4 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bragança sit 5th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (4 points from 2 matches) and Maria da Fonte sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bragança | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Maria da Fonte | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bragança vs Maria da Fonte?
- The Footlab model makes Bragança the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Bragança vs Maria da Fonte played?
- Bragança vs Maria da Fonte is played on February 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Bragança, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.