Brea vs Fraga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Group 17 - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena, Brea de Aragón
The Footlab model makes Brea the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Fraga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brea vs Fraga?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Brea (1,667) and Fraga (1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brea have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Fraga have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Caspe(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 4, 2025 | Ebro(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Cuarte(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Belchite 97(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Épila(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Almudévar(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 4, 2025 | Andorra CF(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Binéfar(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Zuera(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Huesca II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Brea win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Fraga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Fraga 2-3 Brea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Brea 2-2 Fraga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Jan 26, 2020 | Fraga 1-1 Brea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Sep 15, 2019 | Brea 1-3 Fraga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
How many goals should we expect?
Brea score 0.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fraga score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brea | 0.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Fraga | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brea vs Fraga?
- The Footlab model makes Brea the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Fraga.
- Where and when is Brea vs Fraga played?
- Brea vs Fraga is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.