Brito vs Maria da Fonte: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Parque de Jogos do Brito SC, Brito
The Footlab model makes Brito the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brito vs Maria da Fonte?
Brito starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,832 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brito have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Maria da Fonte have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Montalegre(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Mirandela(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ribeira Brava(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Brito(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arouca(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Brito win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Maria da Fonte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2025 | Maria da Fonte 1-2 Brito | Taça de Portugal |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Maria da Fonte 2-1 Brito | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Brito 2-0 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Maria da Fonte vs Brito on Aug 31, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Brito score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brito | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brito sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (0 points from 2 matches) and Maria da Fonte sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Maria da Fonte | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Brito | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brito vs Maria da Fonte?
- The Footlab model makes Brito the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Brito vs Maria da Fonte played?
- Brito vs Maria da Fonte is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Parque de Jogos do Brito SC, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.