Burton Albion vs Notts County: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 6Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Pirelli Stadium, Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Burton Albion the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Notts County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burton Albion vs Notts County?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Burton Albion (1,794) and Notts County (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burton Albion have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Notts County have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stevenage(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Burton Albion win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Notts County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2024 | Burton Albion 1-2 Notts County | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 3, 2013 | Notts County 1-0 Burton Albion | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Burton Albion vs Notts County on Sep 24, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Burton Albion score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burton Albion sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Notts County sit 4th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Burton Albion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Notts County | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burton Albion vs Notts County?
- The Footlab model makes Burton Albion the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Notts County.
- Where and when is Burton Albion vs Notts County played?
- Burton Albion vs Notts County is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Pirelli Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.