Casarano vs SS Monopoli: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 7Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, Casarano
The Footlab model makes Casarano the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for SS Monopoli. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casarano vs SS Monopoli?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Casarano (1,838) and SS Monopoli (1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casarano have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; SS Monopoli have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 1-4 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bari(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 20, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 0-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 13, 2026 | Renate(away) | 3-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Audace Cerignola(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Casarano(home) | 0-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Foggia(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Casarano win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 SS Monopoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | SS Monopoli 0-2 Casarano | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Mar 9, 2026 | SS Monopoli 2-1 Casarano | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Casarano 1-3 SS Monopoli | Serie C - Girone C |
Last archived meeting: SS Monopoli vs Casarano on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Casarano score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; SS Monopoli score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casarano | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| SS Monopoli | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Casarano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casarano vs SS Monopoli?
- The Footlab model makes Casarano the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for SS Monopoli.
- Where and when is Casarano vs SS Monopoli played?
- Casarano vs SS Monopoli is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.