Match

Castro vs Solares: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Riomar, Castro Urdiales

CastroSolares

The Footlab model makes Castro the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Solares. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Castro vs Solares?

A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Castro (1,701) and Solares (1,623).

Castro win47 %
Draw26 %
Solares win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Solares have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Castro
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 9, 2026Tropezón(home)0-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
May 3, 2026Cartes(away)0-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 26, 2026Gimnástica Torrelavega(home)2-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 18, 2026Revilla(away)1-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 12, 2026Guarnizo(home)0-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Solares
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 11, 2024Guarnizo(away)2-4Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
May 5, 2024Cartes(home)3-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
May 1, 2024Tropezón(away)0-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 27, 2024Laredo(away)0-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 20, 2024Escobedo(home)0-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Castro win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Solares win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 18, 2024Castro 4-0 SolaresTercera División RFEF - Group 3
Sep 30, 2023Solares 1-0 CastroTercera División RFEF - Group 3
Mar 5, 2023Castro 4-4 SolaresTercera División RFEF - Group 3
Oct 29, 2022Solares 1-0 CastroTercera División RFEF - Group 3
Jan 23, 2021Castro 2-1 SolaresTercera División RFEF - Group 3
Oct 24, 2020Solares 0-1 CastroTercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last archived meeting: Castro vs Solares on Feb 18, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Castro score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Solares score 0.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Castro1.21.338/158/15
Solares0.91.827/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11Castro3410816444738

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Castro vs Solares?
The Footlab model makes Castro the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Solares.
Where and when is Castro vs Solares played?
Castro vs Solares is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Riomar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Castro and Solares

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