Castuera vs Santa Amalia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 34Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Ruiz, Castuera
The Footlab model makes Castuera the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Santa Amalia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castuera vs Santa Amalia?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Castuera (1,681) and Santa Amalia (1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castuera have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Santa Amalia have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Badajoz(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 4, 2025 | Trujillo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Puebla Calzada(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Extremadura 1924(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Moralo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Diocesano(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villafranca(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Don Benito(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Castuera win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Santa Amalia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Santa Amalia 4-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Castuera 1-0 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Amalia vs Castuera on Mar 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Castuera score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Amalia score 0.7 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castuera | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Santa Amalia | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castuera vs Santa Amalia?
- The Footlab model makes Castuera the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Santa Amalia.
- Where and when is Castuera vs Santa Amalia played?
- Castuera vs Santa Amalia is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Ruiz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.