Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison: prediction and stats
USL League OneSemi-finalsKick-off on November 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)American Legion Memorial Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Footlab AI model makes Charlotte Independence the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Forward Madison. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,509 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison?
On Elo ratings, Charlotte Independence has 1,854 points and Forward Madison 1,812.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Charlotte Independence
4-3-3- 10Jon Bakero
- 26S. Marou
- 7P. Saydee
- 14R. Manin
- 6J. Fuchs
- 8C. Jaime
- 17C. Dimick
- 3J. Skinner
- 5J. Romero
- 4S. Coulibaly
- 28M. Levy
Forward Madison
4-3-3- 9Ryan Carmichael
- 7J. Bolma
- 21B. Karamoko
- 12R. Torres
- 57B. Augee
- 30E. Machacen
- 8M. Segbers
- 20K. Carmichael
- 6G. Kanyane
- 23E. Munjoma
- 1John Harms
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 12:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charlotte Independence have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Forward Madison have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Naples(home) | 5-1 | USL League One |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Portland Hearts of Pine(away) | 1-4 | USL League One |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Greenville Triumph(away) | 3-0 | USL League One |
| Oct 10, 2026 | NY Cosmos(home) | 3-0 | USL League One |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Sarasota Paradise(away) | 3-2 | USL League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Spokane Velocity(home) | 2-1 | USL League One |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Union Omaha(home) | 0-0 | USL League One |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Portland Hearts of Pine(home) | 2-0 | USL League One |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Westchester SC(away) | 2-3 | USL League One |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fort Wayne(away) | 0-0 | USL League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Charlotte Independence win, 3 draws, 2 Forward Madison wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Forward Madison 1-1 Charlotte Independence | USL League One |
| May 23, 2026 | Charlotte Independence 3-1 Forward Madison | USL League One |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Forward Madison 1-1 Charlotte Independence | USL League One |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Charlotte Independence 1-1 Forward Madison | USL League One |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Forward Madison 2-0 Charlotte Independence | USL League One |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Charlotte Independence 2-4 Forward Madison | USL League One |
Last archived meeting: Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independence on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Charlotte Independence score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Forward Madison score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Independence | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Forward Madison | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charlotte Independence sit 1st in USL League One (66 points from 32 matches) and Forward Madison sit 4th (56 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 74 | 46 | 66 |
| 4 | Forward Madison | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 54 | 30 | 56 |
A question about Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison?
- The Footlab AI model makes Charlotte Independence the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Forward Madison.
- Where and when is Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison played?
- Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison is played on November 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at American Legion Memorial Stadium, in the USL League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.