Colunga vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santianes, Colunga
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Colunga. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colunga vs Covadonga?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 270-point Elo edge (1,932 vs 1,661).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colunga have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(away) | 2-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Praviano(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lenense(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Martín(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Colunga win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Covadonga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Covadonga 2-0 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Colunga 0-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Colunga 1-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Covadonga 3-0 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Covadonga 1-0 Colunga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Colunga 0-0 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Colunga score 1.0 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colunga | 1.0 | 1.8 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colunga sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (40 points from 34 matches) and Covadonga sit 2nd (80 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
| 11 | Colunga | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 56 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colunga vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Colunga.
- Where and when is Colunga vs Covadonga played?
- Colunga vs Covadonga is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santianes, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.