Covadonga vs Lealtad: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 34Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Lealtad. The most likely score is 1-1. If Covadonga wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Lealtad?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,799).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Covadonga vs Lealtad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Lealtad
4-3-3- AAdrián Rueda Colunga
- MM. Ouroui
- JJaime Alvarez
- 6Marcos Blanco
- YYerpes
- BBabafemo Fofana
- RRiki Menéndez
- OOmar Hernández
- AA. Mendy
- RRicardo Pesquera
- JJuan Junquera
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Lealtad have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Praviano(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Covadonga wins, 1 draw, 2 Lealtad wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | Covadonga 1-0 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Lealtad 2-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Covadonga 2-1 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Lealtad 1-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 20, 2022 | Lealtad 2-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 9, 2021 | Covadonga 2-3 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Lealtad score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Lealtad | 1.2 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Covadonga sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (13 points from 5 matches) and Lealtad sit 8th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Lealtad | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
A question about Covadonga vs Lealtad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Lealtad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Lealtad.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Lealtad played?
- Covadonga vs Lealtad is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.