CSM Targu Jiu vs Minerul Lupeni: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 6Group 6 - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Minerul Lupeni the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for CSM Targu Jiu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSM Targu Jiu vs Minerul Lupeni?
Minerul Lupeni starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,607 vs 1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSM Targu Jiu have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Minerul Lupeni have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea(home) | 0-0 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Păușești(away) | 2-0 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti(home) | 3-2 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | Inter Sibiu(home) | 2-4 | Liga III - Serie 6 |
| May 9, 2026 | Păușești(away) | 2-0 | Liga III - Serie 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Unirea Slobozia(home) | 1-0 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Jiul Petroşani(away) | 1-0 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Caransebes(away) | 0-0 | Cupa României |
| May 30, 2026 | Unirea Alba Iulia(home) | 0-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 23, 2026 | CS U Craiova II(away) | 3-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 CSM Targu Jiu win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Minerul Lupeni win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Minerul Lupeni 0-0 CSM Targu Jiu | Liga III - Serie 6 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | CSM Targu Jiu 0-1 Minerul Lupeni | Liga III - Serie 6 |
Last archived meeting: Minerul Lupeni vs CSM Targu Jiu on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSM Targu Jiu score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Minerul Lupeni score 1.3 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSM Targu Jiu | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Minerul Lupeni | 1.3 | 0.5 | 11 | 2/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSM Targu Jiu sit 3rd in Liga III - Serie 6 (43 points from 7 matches) and Minerul Lupeni sit 2nd (40 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 40 |
| 3 | CSM Targu Jiu | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSM Targu Jiu vs Minerul Lupeni?
- The Footlab model makes Minerul Lupeni the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for CSM Targu Jiu.
- Where and when is CSM Targu Jiu vs Minerul Lupeni played?
- CSM Targu Jiu vs Minerul Lupeni is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga III - Serie 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.