Match

Derry City vs Waterford: prediction and stats

FAI CupFinalKick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Aviva Stadium, Dublin

Derry CityWaterford

The Footlab AI model makes Derry City the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Waterford. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derry City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,521 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Derry City vs Waterford?

A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Derry City (1,660) and Waterford (1,629).

39%23%38%
Derry City winDrawWaterford win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Derry City vs Waterford

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Derry City

3-5-2
  1. 29T. Smith
  2. 7M. Duffy
  1. 19B. Fleming
  2. 17N. Twisk
  3. 14E. Chapman
  4. 12D. Burns
  5. 21Kévin Santos
  1. 4J. Stott
  2. 3Patrick McClean
  3. 23C. Dummigan
  1. 1B. Maher

Waterford

4-4-2
  1. 9P. Amond
  2. 18T. Lonergan
  1. 10C. Noonan
  2. 7N. Mawene
  3. 8E. McLaughlin
  4. 2J. Houston
  1. 13K. Long
  2. 5J. Mahon
  3. 3Benny Couto
  4. 16H. Cann
  1. 1S. McMullan

Computed on November 5, 2026 at 06:58 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derry City have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Waterford have 9, 4 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Derry City
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 30, 2026Sligo Rovers(away)2-2Premier Division
Oct 23, 2026Dundalk(home)2-1Premier Division
Oct 19, 2026St Patrick's Athl.(home)1-0Premier Division
Oct 16, 2026Drogheda United(away)0-2Premier Division
Oct 10, 2026Galway United(away)2-0FAI Cup
Waterford
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 30, 2026Shelbourne(away)3-2Premier Division
Oct 23, 2026Drogheda United(home)3-1Premier Division
Oct 19, 2026Galway United(home)3-2Premier Division
Oct 16, 2026Bohemians(away)1-2Premier Division
Oct 9, 2026Bohemians(away)2-0FAI Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Derry City wins, 2 draws, 1 Waterford win.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 14, 2026Waterford 2-2 Derry CityPremier Division
Jul 3, 2026Derry City 2-4 WaterfordPremier Division
May 15, 2026Waterford 2-2 Derry CityPremier Division
Feb 27, 2026Derry City 4-2 WaterfordPremier Division
Oct 17, 2025Waterford 1-2 Derry CityPremier Division
Jul 4, 2025Derry City 7-2 WaterfordPremier Division

Last archived meeting: Waterford vs Derry City on Sep 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Derry City score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Waterford score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Derry City1.71.358/157/15
Waterford1.91.069/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Derry City vs Waterford?

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Derry City vs Waterford?
The Footlab AI model makes Derry City the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Waterford.
Where and when is Derry City vs Waterford played?
Derry City vs Waterford is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Aviva Stadium, in the FAI Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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