Dragons vs ASPAC: prediction and stats
Championnat NationalRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Charles de Gaulle, Porto-Novo
The Footlab model makes ASPAC the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Dragons. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dragons vs ASPAC?
ASPAC starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,678).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dragons have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; ASPAC have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Buffles(home) | 1-1 | Championnat National |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Cavaliers(away) | 1-2 | Championnat National |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ayema(home) | 1-0 | Championnat National |
| May 30, 2026 | Coton Sport Ouidah(away) | 1-3 | Championnat National |
| May 22, 2026 | Loto Popo(home) | 0-2 | Championnat National |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Cavaliers(home) | 1-1 | Championnat National |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Loto Popo(away) | 0-1 | Championnat National |
| Jun 6, 2026 | ASVO(home) | 2-0 | Championnat National |
| May 30, 2026 | Dynamo Abomey(away) | 2-1 | Championnat National |
| May 23, 2026 | Damissa(home) | 4-1 | Championnat National |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Dragons win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 ASPAC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Dragons 3-2 ASPAC | Championnat National |
| Oct 25, 2025 | ASPAC 4-1 Dragons | Championnat National |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ASPAC 1-1 Dragons | Championnat National |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Dragons 2-1 ASPAC | Championnat National |
| May 18, 2024 | ASPAC 1-0 Dragons | Championnat National |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Dragons 1-0 ASPAC | Championnat National |
How many goals should we expect?
Dragons score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; ASPAC score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| ASPAC | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dragons sit 14th in Championnat National (36 points from 33 matches) and ASPAC sit 3rd (59 points from 33 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ASPAC | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 46 | 22 | 59 |
| 14 | Dragons | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 44 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dragons vs ASPAC?
- The Footlab model makes ASPAC the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Dragons.
- Where and when is Dragons vs ASPAC played?
- Dragons vs ASPAC is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Charles de Gaulle, in the Championnat National.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.