Ecuador vs Costa Rica: prediction and stats
FriendliesFriendly InternationalKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
The Footlab AI model makes Ecuador the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Costa Rica. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ecuador wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 4,767 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
On Elo ratings, Ecuador has 1,699 points and Costa Rica 1,655.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ecuador vs Costa Rica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ecuador
4-4-2- 23J. Mercado
- 9J. Caicedo
- 5J. Alcívar
- 10J. Yeboah
- 15P. Vite
- 20N. Angulo
- 17A. Preciado
- 21A. Franco
- 6W. Pacho
- 7P. Estupiñán
- 1H. Galíndez
Costa Rica
4-4-2- 19O. Sinclair
- 12A. Soto
- 17C. Mora
- 8S. Acuña
- 20K. Michel
- 8D. Araya
- 15F. Calvo
- 2Yerlan Sosa
- 3J. Mitchell
- 4J. Vargas
- 1K. Navas
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 08:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ecuador have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Costa Rica have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Panama(home) | 1-1 | Kirin Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Japan(away) | 0-0 | Kirin Cup |
| Sep 24, 2026 | South Korea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Germany(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Haiti(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Nicaragua(away) | 3-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Haiti(away) | 0-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Curaçao(home) | 3-4 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 10, 2026 | England(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Ecuador wins, 0 draws, 0 Costa Rica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2023 | Costa Rica 1-3 Ecuador | Friendlies |
| Jun 21, 2023 | Ecuador 3-1 Costa Rica | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Costa Rica vs Ecuador on Jun 21, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Ecuador score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Costa Rica score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Costa Rica | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ecuador vs Costa Rica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ecuador the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Costa Rica.
- Where and when is Ecuador vs Costa Rica played?
- Ecuador vs Costa Rica is played on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, in the Friendlies.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.