Ekhaya vs Karonga United: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Ekhaya the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Karonga United. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ekhaya vs Karonga United?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Ekhaya (1,502) and Karonga United (1,459).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ekhaya have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Karonga United have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Creck(away) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Silver Strikers(away) | 0-3 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dedza Dynamos(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Mitundu Baptist(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chitipa United(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chitipa United(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nyasa Big Bullets(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mitundu Baptist(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Creck(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dedza Dynamos(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Ekhaya win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Karonga United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Karonga United 0-1 Ekhaya | Super League |
| May 21, 2025 | Ekhaya 2-0 Karonga United | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Karonga United vs Ekhaya on Nov 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ekhaya score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Karonga United score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekhaya | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Karonga United | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ekhaya sit 10th in Super League (17 points from 14 matches) and Karonga United sit 14th (13 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ekhaya | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Karonga United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Ekhaya | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| 14 | Karonga United | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ekhaya vs Karonga United?
- The Footlab model makes Ekhaya the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Karonga United.
- Where and when is Ekhaya vs Karonga United played?
- Ekhaya vs Karonga United is played on September 19, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC), in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.