El Gouna FC vs Al Ahly: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on January 5, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Khaled Bichara Stadium, El-Gouna
The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for El Gouna FC. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win El Gouna FC vs Al Ahly?
Al Ahly starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (2,031 vs 1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Gouna FC have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Al Ahly have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Future FC(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 28, 2026 | Petrojet(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 22, 2026 | El Geish(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | National Bank of Egypt(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 12, 2026 | Kahraba Ismailia(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 20, 2026 | AL Masry(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | Zamalek SC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 El Gouna FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Al Ahly win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2026 | Al Ahly 1-0 El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Al Ahly 2-0 El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| May 4, 2024 | Al Ahly 3-0 El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| Nov 11, 2023 | El Gouna FC 1-1 Al Ahly | Premier League |
| Jul 24, 2022 | Al Ahly 2-0 El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| Jul 5, 2022 | El Gouna FC 0-0 Al Ahly | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Al Ahly vs El Gouna FC on Feb 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
El Gouna FC score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Al Ahly score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Gouna FC | 0.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Al Ahly | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
El Gouna FC sit 9th in Premier League (1 points from 1 matches) and Al Ahly sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | El Gouna FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for El Gouna FC vs Al Ahly?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for El Gouna FC.
- Where and when is El Gouna FC vs Al Ahly played?
- El Gouna FC vs Al Ahly is played on January 5, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Khaled Bichara Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.