Erbil vs Al Karkh: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Franso Hariri Stadium, Erbil
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Al Karkh. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erbil vs Al Karkh?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,522).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Erbil vs Al Karkh
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Al Karkh
Not enough data to predict the Al Karkh lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erbil have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Al Karkh have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ajman(away) | 4-5 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 2-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Naft Maysan(home) | 3-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 3-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Al Talaba(away) | 2-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Erbil wins, 2 draws, 1 Al Karkh win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Al Karkh 0-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 2, 2026 | Erbil 1-0 Al Karkh | Iraqi League |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Al Karkh 1-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Erbil 1-3 Al Karkh | Iraqi League |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Al Karkh 2-4 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 8, 2024 | Al Karkh 0-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Erbil score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Al Karkh score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erbil | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Al Karkh | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erbil sit 4th in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Al Karkh sit 18th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 18 | Al Karkh | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 7 |
A question about Erbil vs Al Karkh?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erbil vs Al Karkh?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Al Karkh.
- Where and when is Erbil vs Al Karkh played?
- Erbil vs Al Karkh is played on January 1, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Franso Hariri Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.