ES Setif vs USM Alger: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 14Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade du 8 Mai 1945, Sétif
The Footlab model makes ES Setif the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for USM Alger. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Setif vs USM Alger?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate ES Setif (1,864) and USM Alger (1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Setif have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; USM Alger have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Paradou AC(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 20, 2026 | MC Alger(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 16, 2026 | CR Belouizdad(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | JS Kabylie(away) | 1-5 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MC Oran(home) | 3-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | MC Oran(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Ben Aknoun(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | CR Belouizdad(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 30, 2026 | MB Rouisset(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2026 | Khenchela(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 ES Setif win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 USM Alger win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | USM Alger 2-0 ES Setif | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | ES Setif 1-3 USM Alger | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | USM Alger 1-0 ES Setif | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | ES Setif 1-1 USM Alger | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 19, 2024 | USM Alger 2-0 ES Setif | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 14, 2023 | ES Setif 2-1 USM Alger | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: USM Alger vs ES Setif on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Setif score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; USM Alger score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Setif | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| USM Alger | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Setif sit 11th in Ligue 1 (39 points from 30 matches) and USM Alger sit 10th (39 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | USM Alger | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 34 | 29 | 39 |
| 11 | ES Setif | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Setif vs USM Alger?
- The Footlab model makes ES Setif the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for USM Alger.
- Where and when is ES Setif vs USM Alger played?
- ES Setif vs USM Alger is played on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du 8 Mai 1945, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.