FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)St. Jakob-Park, Basel
The Footlab model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for FC Basel 1893. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate FC Basel 1893 (1,936) and FC Lugano (2,032).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Basel 1893 have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; FC Lugano have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Zurich(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Courtételle(away) | 6-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 4-2 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lausanne(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vedeggio(away) | 10-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | NSI Runavik(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Zurich(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | NSI Runavik(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Basel 1893 win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 FC Lugano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | FC Lugano 4-0 FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| Feb 15, 2026 | FC Basel 1893 1-1 FC Lugano | Super League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | FC Basel 1893 0-1 FC Lugano | Super League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | FC Lugano 3-1 FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| May 10, 2025 | FC Lugano 2-5 FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | FC Basel 1893 2-0 FC Lugano | Super League |
Last archived meeting: FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Basel 1893 score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; FC Lugano score 3.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Basel 1893 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Lugano | 3.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Basel 1893 sit 3rd in Super League (9 points from 4 matches) and FC Lugano sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | FC Basel 1893 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano?
- The Footlab model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for FC Basel 1893.
- Where and when is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano played?
- FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano is played on September 6, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at St. Jakob-Park, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.