FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 79%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Kuressaare. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare?
FC Levadia Tallinn is a heavy favourite: 1,859 Elo points against 1,488 — a 371-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Levadia Tallinn have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Kuressaare have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 4-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 5-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kristiine JK(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 FC Levadia Tallinn win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Kuressaare win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Kuressaare 1-2 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Kuressaare 0-3 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 1, 2025 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Kuressaare 1-2 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 8, 2025 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Levadia Tallinn score 2.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kuressaare score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 2.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Kuressaare | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Levadia Tallinn sit 1st in Meistriliiga (56 points from 23 matches) and Kuressaare sit 9th (24 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 61 | 18 | 56 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare?
- The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 79%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Kuressaare.
- Where and when is FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare played?
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare is played on September 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at A. Le Coq Arena, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.