FC Lugano vs FC Luzern: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stadio di Cornaredo, Lugano
The Footlab model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for FC Luzern. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Lugano vs FC Luzern?
FC Lugano starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,046 vs 1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Lugano have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; FC Luzern have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vedeggio(away) | 10-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | NSI Runavik(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Zurich(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | NSI Runavik(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lausanne(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Buochs(away) | 3-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC ST. Gallen(away) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 0-3 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Lugano win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 FC Luzern win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | FC Lugano 1-3 FC Luzern | Super League |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FC Luzern 2-5 FC Lugano | Super League |
| Oct 30, 2025 | FC Lugano 2-0 FC Luzern | Super League |
| May 4, 2025 | FC Luzern 0-2 FC Lugano | Super League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | FC Lugano 2-0 FC Luzern | Super League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | FC Luzern 1-4 FC Lugano | Super League |
Last archived meeting: FC Lugano vs FC Luzern on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Lugano score 3.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; FC Luzern score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 3.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Luzern | 2.0 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Lugano sit 2nd in Super League (9 points from 3 matches) and FC Luzern sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | FC Luzern | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Lugano vs FC Luzern?
- The Footlab model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for FC Luzern.
- Where and when is FC Lugano vs FC Luzern played?
- FC Lugano vs FC Luzern is played on October 10, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio di Cornaredo, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.