FC Serpa vs Aljustrelense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 21Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião, Serpa
The Footlab model makes FC Serpa the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Aljustrelense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Serpa vs Aljustrelense?
FC Serpa starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (1,816 vs 1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Serpa have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Aljustrelense have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(home) | 4-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Oriental Lisboa(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Juventude Évora(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sintrense(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lagoa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Moura(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Louletano(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Serpa score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aljustrelense score 0.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Serpa | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Aljustrelense | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Serpa | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 27 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Serpa vs Aljustrelense?
- The Footlab model makes FC Serpa the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Aljustrelense.
- Where and when is FC Serpa vs Aljustrelense played?
- FC Serpa vs Aljustrelense is played on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Sintético Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.