Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 3Group 3 - 4Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Flacăra, Moreni
The Footlab model makes Flacăra Moreni the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Păuleşti. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti?
Flacăra Moreni starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,549 vs 1,342).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flacăra Moreni have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Păuleşti have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Chindia Targoviste(home) | 1-2 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Pucioasa(away) | 7-0 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Dunarea Calarasi(away) | 7-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Înainte Modelu(home) | 0-1 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 9, 2026 | Popești-Leordeni(away) | 1-1 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Tunari(home) | 0-3 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Blejoi(home) | 6-2 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | Braila(away) | 1-2 | Liga III - Serie 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Petrolul 52 II(home) | 4-3 | Liga III - Serie 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Plopeni(away) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Flacăra Moreni win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Păuleşti win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Păuleşti 2-1 Flacăra Moreni | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Flacăra Moreni 1-1 Păuleşti | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Flacăra Moreni 1-0 Păuleşti | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Păuleşti 4-0 Flacăra Moreni | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 11, 2024 | Păuleşti 1-2 Flacăra Moreni | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Flacăra Moreni 3-0 Păuleşti | Liga III - Serie 4 |
Last archived meeting: Păuleşti vs Flacăra Moreni on May 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Flacăra Moreni score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Păuleşti score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flacăra Moreni | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Păuleşti | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti?
- The Footlab model makes Flacăra Moreni the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Păuleşti.
- Where and when is Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti played?
- Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Flacăra, in the Liga III - Serie 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.