GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Colwyn Bay: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on February 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Essity Stadium, Y Fflint / Flint, Flintshire
The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Colwyn Bay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Colwyn Bay?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate GAP Connah S Quay FC (1,945) and Colwyn Bay (1,865).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Colwyn Bay have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bootle(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Colwyn Bay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Colwyn Bay 2-2 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Dec 5, 2025 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-1 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Colwyn Bay 1-1 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Nov 29, 2023 | Colwyn Bay 2-3 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2023 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-1 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Colwyn Bay on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Colwyn Bay score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Colwyn Bay | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and Colwyn Bay sit 9th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Colwyn Bay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Colwyn Bay?
- The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Colwyn Bay.
- Where and when is GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Colwyn Bay played?
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Colwyn Bay is played on February 12, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Essity Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.