Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic: prediction and stats
Football League - Lowland LeagueRegular SeasonKick-off on September 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Keirs Park, Hill of Beath
The Footlab model makes Hill Of Beath Hawthorn the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Musselburgh Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (1,577) and Musselburgh Athletic (1,561).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hill Of Beath Hawthorn have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Musselburgh Athletic have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gala Fairydean Rovers(away) | 4-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunipace(home) | 1-0 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Berwick Rangers(away) | 2-0 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Civil Service Strollers(away) | 0-4 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | East Stirlingshire(home) | 1-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bo'ness United(home) | 2-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Linlithgow Rose(home) | 0-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lochee United(away) | 1-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunipace(away) | 3-1 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic(home) | 0-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
How many goals should we expect?
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Musselburgh Athletic score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 2.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Musselburgh Athletic | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn sit 14th in Football League - Lowland League (9 points from 5 matches) and Musselburgh Athletic sit 23rd (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 23 | Musselburgh Athletic | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Hill Of Beath Hawthorn the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Musselburgh Athletic.
- Where and when is Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic played?
- Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic is played on September 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Keirs Park, in the Football League - Lowland League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jul 25, 2026Auchinleck Talbot6-0Dalbeattie Star
- Jul 25, 2026Hill Of Beath Hawthorn1-2East Stirlingshire
- Jul 25, 2026Linlithgow Rose1-1Civil Service Strollers
- Jul 25, 2026Lochee United1-1Berwick Rangers
- Jul 25, 2026Gretna 20082-3Caledonian Braves
- Jul 25, 2026Stirling University0-1Broxburn Athletic
- Jul 25, 2026Bo'ness United1-2Tranent Juniors
- Jul 25, 2026Cowdenbeath0-1Gala Fairydean Rovers