Igea Virtus vs CastrumFavara: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Stagno d'Alcontres, Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto
The Footlab AI model makes Igea Virtus the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for CastrumFavara. The most likely score is 1-1. If Igea Virtus wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Igea Virtus vs CastrumFavara?
Igea Virtus starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,710 vs 1,604).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Igea Virtus vs CastrumFavara
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Igea Virtus
Not enough data to predict the Igea Virtus lineup.
CastrumFavara
Not enough data to predict the CastrumFavara lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:02 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Igea Virtus have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; CastrumFavara have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CastrumFavara(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 3-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Nissa(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Reggina(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Trapani 1905(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Igea Virtus(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Calcio Avola(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Modica(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Licata(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Igea Virtus win, 3 draws, 2 CastrumFavara wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CastrumFavara 3-2 Igea Virtus | Serie D - Girone I |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Igea Virtus 3-2 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Nov 16, 2025 | CastrumFavara 0-0 Igea Virtus | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 8, 2025 | CastrumFavara 3-1 Igea Virtus | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 6, 2025 | CastrumFavara 1-1 Igea Virtus | Serie D - Girone I |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Igea Virtus 2-2 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
Last archived meeting: CastrumFavara vs Igea Virtus on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Igea Virtus score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; CastrumFavara score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igea Virtus | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| CastrumFavara | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Igea Virtus sit 7th in Serie D - Girone I (11 points from 7 matches) and CastrumFavara sit 12th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 12 | CastrumFavara | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Igea Virtus vs CastrumFavara?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Igea Virtus vs CastrumFavara?
- The Footlab AI model makes Igea Virtus the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for CastrumFavara.
- Where and when is Igea Virtus vs CastrumFavara played?
- Igea Virtus vs CastrumFavara is played on February 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Stagno d'Alcontres, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.