Illescas vs Marchamalo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Illescas, Illescas
The Footlab model makes Illescas the favourite at 40%, against 33% for a draw and 27% for Marchamalo. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Illescas vs Marchamalo?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Illescas (1,716) and Marchamalo (1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Illescas have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Marchamalo have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | SS Reyes II(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CF Talavera(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Manchego(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Villarrobledo(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pozuelo Alarcón(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Sonseca(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Azuqueca(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Villarrubia(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Illescas win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Marchamalo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Illescas 2-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Marchamalo 0-1 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Illescas 5-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Marchamalo 2-3 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 24, 2021 | Marchamalo 2-0 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | Illescas 0-0 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Illescas vs Marchamalo on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Illescas score 0.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Marchamalo score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illescas | 0.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Marchamalo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Illescas sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (37 points from 34 matches) and Marchamalo sit 13th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Illescas | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 21 | 32 | 37 |
| 13 | Marchamalo | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 | 45 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Illescas vs Marchamalo?
- The Footlab model makes Illescas the favourite at 40%, against 33% for a draw and 27% for Marchamalo.
- Where and when is Illescas vs Marchamalo played?
- Illescas vs Marchamalo is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Illescas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.