Illescas vs Marchamalo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Illescas, Illescas
The Footlab AI model makes Illescas the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for Marchamalo. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,479 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Illescas vs Marchamalo?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Illescas (1,759) and Marchamalo (1,728).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Illescas vs Marchamalo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Illescas
Not enough data to predict the Illescas lineup.
Marchamalo
Not enough data to predict the Marchamalo lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Illescas have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Marchamalo have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | La Solana(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Noblejas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Villarrubia(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Quintanar del Rey(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Socuéllamos(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Almansa(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tarancón(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guadalajara II(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Illescas wins, 1 draw, 1 Marchamalo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Illescas 2-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Marchamalo 0-1 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Illescas 5-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Marchamalo 2-3 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 24, 2021 | Marchamalo 2-0 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | Illescas 0-0 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Illescas vs Marchamalo on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Illescas score 0.9 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Marchamalo score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illescas | 0.9 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Marchamalo | 1.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Illescas sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (14 points from 6 matches) and Marchamalo sit 9th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Illescas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Marchamalo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
A question about Illescas vs Marchamalo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Illescas vs Marchamalo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Illescas the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for Marchamalo.
- Where and when is Illescas vs Marchamalo played?
- Illescas vs Marchamalo is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Illescas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.