Ischia vs Nardò: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Mazzella, Ischia
The Footlab model makes Nardò the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Ischia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ischia vs Nardò?
Nardò starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,770 vs 1,659).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ischia have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Nardò have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Juve Stabia(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Olbia(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| May 3, 2026 | Nocerina(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Montespaccato(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 19, 2026 | USD Palmese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manfredonia(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Ischia win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Nardò win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | Nardò 0-0 Ischia | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Ischia 2-2 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Ischia score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nardò score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ischia | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Nardò | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nardò | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ischia vs Nardò?
- The Footlab model makes Nardò the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Ischia.
- Where and when is Ischia vs Nardò played?
- Ischia vs Nardò is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Mazzella, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.