Les Herbiers vs Tarbes: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 5Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Massabielle, Les Herbiers
The Footlab model makes Les Herbiers the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Tarbes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Les Herbiers vs Tarbes?
Les Herbiers starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,835 vs 1,690).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Les Herbiers have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Tarbes have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saint-Colomban Locminé(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Angers(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Châteaubriant(home) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Bordeaux(away) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Avranches(home) | 3-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Blagnac(away) | 2-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Onet-le-Château(home) | 6-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lège-Cap-Ferret(home) | 4-4 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pau II(away) | 1-0 | National 3 - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Les Herbiers win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Tarbes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2015 | Les Herbiers 1-1 Tarbes | National 2 - Group D |
| Nov 1, 2014 | Tarbes 2-2 Les Herbiers | National 2 - Group D |
Last archived meeting: Les Herbiers vs Tarbes on Mar 28, 2015
How many goals should we expect?
Les Herbiers score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tarbes score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Les Herbiers | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Tarbes | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Les Herbiers sit 6th in National 2 - Group B (1 points from 1 matches) and Tarbes sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Les Herbiers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Tarbes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Les Herbiers vs Tarbes?
- The Footlab model makes Les Herbiers the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Tarbes.
- Where and when is Les Herbiers vs Tarbes played?
- Les Herbiers vs Tarbes is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Massabielle, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.