Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas, Marijampolė
The Footlab model makes Lithuania the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Azerbaijan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Lithuania (1,269) and Azerbaijan (1,339).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lithuania have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Azerbaijan have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Latvia(home) | 1-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Georgia(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Moldova(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Netherlands(away) | 0-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | San Marino(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Malta(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | St. Lucia(home) | 6-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 16, 2025 | France(home) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Lithuania win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Azerbaijan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2019 | Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania on Mar 25, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Lithuania score 0.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Azerbaijan score 0.9 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | 0.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Azerbaijan | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
- The Footlab model makes Lithuania the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Azerbaijan.
- Where and when is Lithuania vs Azerbaijan played?
- Lithuania vs Azerbaijan is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.