Lorient II vs Bayonne: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Jean Charter 1, Quimperle
The Footlab model makes Bayonne the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Lorient II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lorient II vs Bayonne?
Bayonne starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,826 vs 1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lorient II have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Bayonne have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chauray(home) | 3-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Poitiers(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Angoulême(away) | 2-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Saint-Malo(home) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 2-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Granville(away) | 3-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Saumur(home) | 3-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Châteaubriant(away) | 1-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Bordeaux(home) | 1-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Avranches(away) | 2-0 | National 2 - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Lorient II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bayonne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Lorient II 1-0 Bayonne | National 2 - Group A |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Bayonne 2-1 Lorient II | National 2 - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Lorient II vs Bayonne on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lorient II score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Bayonne score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient II | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Bayonne | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lorient II sit 3rd in National 2 - Group B (3 points from 1 matches) and Bayonne sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayonne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Lorient II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lorient II vs Bayonne?
- The Footlab model makes Bayonne the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Lorient II.
- Where and when is Lorient II vs Bayonne played?
- Lorient II vs Bayonne is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Jean Charter 1, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.