Luparense vs Este: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone CGroup C - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée, San Martino di Lupari
The Footlab model makes Este the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Luparense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luparense vs Este?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Luparense (1,738) and Este (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luparense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Este have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cittadella(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Este(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vigasio(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Conegliano(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mestre(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Clodiense(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| May 17, 2026 | Legnago Salus(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone C |
| May 3, 2026 | Luparense(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Treviso(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Clodiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Luparense win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Este win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Este 2-0 Luparense | Serie D - Girone C |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Luparense 1-1 Este | Serie D - Girone C |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Luparense 2-0 Este | Serie D - Girone C |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Este 1-1 Luparense | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Luparense 2-1 Este | Serie D - Girone C |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Este 0-0 Luparense | Serie D - Girone C |
How many goals should we expect?
Luparense score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Este score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luparense | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Este | 0.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Luparense sit 13th in Serie D - Girone C (43 points from 34 matches) and Este sit 5th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Este | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40 | 29 | 55 |
| 13 | Luparense | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luparense vs Este?
- The Footlab model makes Este the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Luparense.
- Where and when is Luparense vs Este played?
- Luparense vs Este is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée, in the Serie D - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.