Mixco vs Aurora: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Julio Armando Cóbar, San Miguel Petapa
The Footlab model makes Mixco the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Aurora. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mixco vs Aurora?
Mixco starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,686 vs 1,576).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mixco have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Aurora have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guastatoya(home) | 4-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 20, 2026 | UMECIT(home) | 4-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(away) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo Saprissa(away) | 0-3 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marquense(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Suchitepéquez(home) | 3-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo San Pedro(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Comunicaciones(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Xelajú(away) | 1-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guastatoya(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mixco win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Aurora win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Mixco 4-0 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Aurora 1-1 Mixco | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Aurora 1-0 Mixco | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Mixco 2-2 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Aurora 0-1 Mixco | Primera Division |
| Feb 3, 2022 | Mixco 1-0 Aurora | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Mixco score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aurora score 0.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixco | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Aurora | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mixco sit 3rd in Liga Nacional (36 points from 22 matches) and Aurora sit 11th (20 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mixco | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 36 |
| 11 | Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mixco vs Aurora?
- The Footlab model makes Mixco the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Aurora.
- Where and when is Mixco vs Aurora played?
- Mixco vs Aurora is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Julio Armando Cóbar, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.