Montijo vs Santa Amalia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez, Montijo
The Footlab model makes Montijo the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Santa Amalia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montijo vs Santa Amalia?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Montijo (1,758) and Santa Amalia (1,667).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montijo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Santa Amalia have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Santa Amalia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 2, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Calamonte(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Moralo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Diocesano(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villafranca(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Don Benito(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Montijo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Santa Amalia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Montijo 2-1 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Santa Amalia 1-0 Montijo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Montijo 1-0 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Santa Amalia 2-0 Montijo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Montijo vs Santa Amalia on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Montijo score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Amalia score 0.7 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montijo | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Santa Amalia | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montijo sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (46 points from 34 matches) and Santa Amalia sit 13th (34 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43 | 42 | 46 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montijo vs Santa Amalia?
- The Footlab model makes Montijo the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Santa Amalia.
- Where and when is Montijo vs Santa Amalia played?
- Montijo vs Santa Amalia is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.