Mura vs Aluminij: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Mestni Štadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota
The Footlab model makes Mura the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Aluminij. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mura vs Aluminij?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Mura (1,628) and Aluminij (1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mura have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Aluminij have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Koper(home) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Radomlje(home) | 1-3 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 2-5 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(home) | 4-2 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nafta(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mura win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Aluminij win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Aluminij 2-1 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Mura 0-3 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Aluminij 2-2 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Mura 1-1 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Apr 29, 2024 | Mura 3-1 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Aluminij 2-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Mura score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aluminij score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mura | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Aluminij | 0.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mura sit 3rd in 1. SNL (1 points from 1 matches) and Aluminij sit 2nd (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aluminij | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Mura | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Mura | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mura vs Aluminij?
- The Footlab model makes Mura the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Aluminij.
- Where and when is Mura vs Aluminij played?
- Mura vs Aluminij is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Mestni Štadion Fazanerija, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.